The NFL hasn’t provided us with the most exciting three-game slate for this year’s Thanksgiving. Thankfully, fantasy football doesn’t care about the quality of a matchup. We’re getting down to the final couple weeks of the fantasy football regular season. These Turkey Day games could have crucial fantasy ramifications.
Or perhaps you’re just looking for some guidance on how to pick your Thanksgiving Day lineup for a Daily Fantasy Sports game. Whatever your poison, we’ve got you covered.
Without further ado, here are the best fantasy starts, and sits, for the Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears matchup at 12:30 PM, the Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants clash at 4:30 PM, and the Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins tilt at 8:20 PM.
Best Thanksgiving QB Start: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
This one may come as a surprise to some, but Caleb Williams actually has the best matchup of any QB playing on Thanksgiving—and perhaps all week. The Lions have been dominant, but they’ve had trouble with their passing defense all season. They give up the 7th-most passing yards per game to QBs (242.5), and they’ll allow Williams some room to run as well.
While the Lions have been stingy when it comes to allowing TD passes, we believe they might struggle in that regard on Thursday. Rookie Terrion Arnold should be back in the lineup, but he’s still coming off a groin injury. More importantly, top cornerback Carlton Davis is in serious danger of missing the game, which would be a huge blow.
Honorable Mentions: Jared Goff (DET), Jordan Love (GB), Drew Lock (NYG)
Best Thanksgiving QB Sit: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
We all remember what happened to the Dolphins’ high-powered offense once winter hit in December last season. They faltered heavily in cold-weather games down the stretch. The most notable of these was a near-freezing playoff matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs. In that one, it was all too clear that these Miami-conditioned players weren’t comfortable in the cold.
It’s going to be -1 degrees Celsius tomorrow in Green Bay at one of the coldest outdoor venues in the league. That spells trouble for Tua Tagovailoa and the offense, especially considering that snow is expected as well. This unit is built to be quick and dynamic, not slog one out in frigid snowy temperatures. Expect the Dolphins offense, and by proxy Tagovailoa, to struggle at Lambeau Field. Green Bay only allows 13.4 fantasy points per game to QBs anyway, which is the 6th-fewest in the league.
Honorable Mentions: Cooper Rush (DAL)
Best Thanksgiving RB Start: Tyrone Tracy, New York Giants
Tyrone Tracy has been a godsend for the Giants. They allowed likely 2024 rushing king Saquon Barkley to depart in free agency, but the rookie has softened the blow. Tracy has gone for 100+ rushing yards in three of his last seven games.
He’s also been scoring a TD every other game for the last six weeks—and this week it’s TD time. Dallas is also giving up over 150 rushing yards per game, 2nd-most in the NFL, and they’re allowing backs to do it at 4.8 yards per clip, 4th-most in football. This is a dream matchup for Tracy and one that we expect him to grab with both hands.
Honorable Mention: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), Josh Jacobs (GB)
Best Thanksgiving RB Sit: D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears
There was no player in the league that had a more rough start to the 2024 season than D’Andre Swift, but he has since found his footing. However, we expect him to take a backseat in this one.
The Lions are top five in rush yards allowed per game and top 10 in yards allowed per rush, so the matchup is already tough. Add on the fact that the Bears are likely to be chasing this game for much of the afternoon, and it seems likely that Swift will see very few touches in MoTown.
Honorable Mention: De’Von Achane (MIA), Raheem Mostert (MIA)
Best Thanksgiving WR Start: Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears
While the Chicago running game is likely to be in the Detroit dungeons, they should be able to pass on the Lions’ leaky (and injured) secondary on Thursday afternoon. The Lions allow over 187 passing yards per game to WRs, which is 2nd-most in the NFL.
And without their top corner, it could get even worse for Detroit’s pass defense. Rome Odunze is one of many options for Caleb Williams, but the fellow rookie seems to have become the WR1 heading into this Thanksgiving game, as he’s logged 10 targets in back-to-back contests.
Honorable Mention: Malik Nabers (NYG), Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
Best Thanksgiving WR Sit: Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
Jaylen Waddle was drafted as a top-20 wideout in most fantasy football leagues this year, but he sits as the No. 44 WR after 12 weeks. That’s not all his fault, but that doesn’t really matter in fantasy football.
He’s been difficult to trust all year and with this matchup against a feisty Packers secondary in the cold Green Bay weather, we expect the speedster to be as close to a non-factor as there is on Thursday. Waddle had 144 yards last week, but that’s the only time he’s topped 60 since Week 1.
Honorable Mention: CeeDee Lamb (DAL), Any Packers WR
Best Thanksgiving TE Start: Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins
While the wideouts are not great options for fantasy this week, Miami tight end Jonnu Smith is quickly becoming a must-start candidate. He’s become Tagovailoa’s favorite passing game option over the last few weeks, much to Tyreek Hill’s chagrin.
But Smith hasn’t just been seeing targets, he’s been turning them into cold hard fantasy points. 68.90 fantasy points over the last four weeks, to be exact, which is 4th-best among his TE peers. The Packers defense they’re playing on Thanksgiving doesn’t have a lot of holes, but athletic TEs like Smith have been a bit of a kryptonite this year, as George Kittle showed last week.
Honorable Mention: Sam LaPorta (DET)
Best Thanksgiving TE Sit: Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
While the Lions’ secondary has not been able to slow opposing wide receivers down, their linebackers have utterly and completely bottled up opposing tight ends.
They are allowing TEs just 3.55 fantasy points per game in standard scoring format, by far the fewest in the NFL. That’s a tough matchup for Cole Kmet, and while he did have one of his best games of the season last week, he hadn’t seen more than four targets for a month before that. Steer clear of this nightmare matchup on Thanksgiving morning.
Honorable Mention: Jake Ferguson (DAL)
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